For years, the property dream in Singapore was simple: climb the ladder. Start with a BTO, move to a resale, upgrade to a condo, and maybe, if you’ve really “made it”, land yourself a landed property. Agents even had a name for it: property wealth progression. It was the mantra of the 2000s and 2010s.

But the next chapter could be very different. Instead of racing upward, we might see more people moving down. Not because they have to, but because it actually makes sense. With policy shifts closing the door on old assumptions, and Singapore turning super-aged by next year (21% of us will be 65 or older), the stage is set for a new trend: downsizing into resale flats.

👉 Rozi’s Field Notes: Don’t mistake “downsizing” for losing out. For many seniors, it could mean unlocking retirement funds, keeping the comfort of a mature estate, and not paying condo maintenance for a gym they’ll never use.

 

Old Rules Don’t Apply Anymore: SERS Is Out, VERS Is a Big Question Mark

Back in 2018, the government reminded us that even a 50-year-old flat could still appreciate. Buyers clung to what you could call the “hope premium.”

Even after the government clarified that SERS (Selective En-bloc Redevelopment Scheme) would apply to only 4–5% of HDB estates, many still bet on popular locations like Tiong Bahru or Queenstown. After all, no one had yet seen an HDB flat truly run to the end of its lease.

That bet is now over. With SERS effectively off the table, and VERS (Voluntary En-bloc Redevelopment Scheme) still untested, and expected to be far less generous. The appreciation story for older flats has come to a close.

👉 Rozi’s Field Notes: To date, only about 5% of HDB flats have benefitted from SERS. VERS, which is slated to begin only in the 2030s, will focus more on sustainability than windfalls. Translation: the “hope premium” is gone.

 

When Falling Prices Are Actually Good News

Rather than viewing lease decay as the end of wealth, it can be reframed as a safety valve for a greying nation.

As Singapore crosses into “super-aged” status in 2026, with 21% of our population aged 65 and above, affordability and accessibility will matter more than speculative upside.

For a 70-year-old retiree, a flat with 50 years left on the lease is more than enough. And if it comes at a lower price while still offering space, amenities, and a familiar neighbourhood, the trade-off is attractive. Downsizing not only unlocks retirement funds, but also allows seniors to live comfortably in areas they know.

👉 Rozi’s Field Notes: Flats with remaining leases below 60 years have transacted at a median discount of 20–25% compared to similar flat types with fresher leases (HDB Q2 2025 data). For example, a 4-room in Queenstown with ~55 years left changed hands for $650k, versus $850k+ for a newer unit nearby.

And let’s be real: if you’re already in your 70s, that 50-year lease is probably going to outlast your own timeline. Why overpay for something your grandkids aren’t even moving into?

 

Why More Seniors May Choose Flats Over Facilities

  • Healthcare costs will rise, making liquidity and cash flow more important than luxury facilities.
  • Children are housed: With a 90% home ownership rate, retirees aren’t holding on for their kids.
  • Lifestyle priorities change: Few in their 70s are paying a premium for a pickleball court or resort-style gym.

Put together, resale flats, especially older ones, offer the most practical balance of comfort, price, and dignity in later life.

👉 Rozi’s Field Notes: The demand is visible. HDB’s 2-room Flexi flats (launched for seniors in 2015) have been oversubscribed almost every launch. The application rates in mature estates sometimes exceed 7:1.

And honestly, who needs a lap pool when your main exercise is kopi walks with old neighbours downstairs?

 

The Irony of VERS: Help or Headache?

Ironically, the very scheme meant to give ageing flats a second life could become a hassle for seniors. Imagine downsizing, paying for renovations, and settling into a “forever flat,” only to be told a decade later you’ll need to move again under VERS.

For older homeowners, stability may matter more than another en-bloc payout. This could complicate the appeal of ageing flats if VERS ever kicks into gear.

 

So… Is Downsizing Really a Downgrade?

The Singapore property market may be on the cusp of its next big shift: from an era of upgraders chasing capital gains, to a future where downsizing into resale flats is the common-sense choice.

This won’t be a collapse in value. It’s a natural rebalancing, reflecting our nation’s ageing population and changing priorities. And for many, it may be the most dignified and practical way to live out their golden years.

👉 Rozi’s Field Notes: Downsizing isn’t a downgrade. It’s just playing the property game by a different set of rules, one that values cashflow, comfort, and community over bragging rights.