What Happened? Is the Fever Finally Breaking?

After a fiery run last year, the HDB resale market seems to be cooling off.
According to HDB’s latest data, prices rose 0.4% in Q3, easing from 0.9% in Q2 and 1.6% in Q1.
For the first nine months of 2025, resale flat prices climbed 2.9%, far below the 6.9% increase during the same period last year.

The main reason? New supply flooding in.
Over 10,000 new flats were launched in July alone including more than 3,900 with shorter waiting times. Many buyers naturally shifted from resale to these newer BTO and SBF options.

Meanwhile, more sellers are testing higher prices, but buyers are pushing back. This mismatch has slowed deal negotiations, and in some towns, even pushed prices into slight declines.

👉 Rozi’s Field Notes
After years of heady growth, the market is doing what healthy markets do, it’s pausing to breathe. When buyers become more selective and sellers overreach, the natural outcome is slower growth.
And that’s not a bad thing. It gives serious home seekers a fairer chance to enter, and seasoned owners time to plan their next strategic move calmly.

Why It Matters? From Rocket to Cruise Mode

Since bottoming out in 2019, HDB resale prices have surged over 55%. But the last few quarters show we may have reached a plateau phase.
This could mean fewer “windfall” stories but more sustainable growth.

Some homeowners who previously eyed million-dollar flats may now be exploring private alternatives. Analysts note that 29% of private non-landed sales are now transacting in the S$1 million to S$1.5 million range, a strong magnet for upgraders.

👉 Rozi’s Field Notes
When resale prices slow, it’s not the end of opportunity. It’s a shift in strategy.
For some, this is the time to right-size. For others, it’s about locking in gains and repositioning for the next phase, perhaps exploring the “sell one, buy two” concept or diversifying into private homes with better rental yields.

What’s Rising, What’s Falling

Out of 26 HDB towns, 15 saw price gains (ranging from 0.3% to 7.8%), but more than 10 towns recorded declines, a first since 2019.
Top performers:

  • Clementi (+7.8%)
  • Central Area (+6.3%)
  • Geylang (+5%)

At the high end, 480 resale flats crossed the S$1 million mark in Q3, the highest ever in a single quarter.
Total million-dollar transactions for the first nine months: 1,243, already surpassing the full-year 2024 total of 1,035.
Analysts expect the 2025 tally to hit around 1,500 units.

👉 Rozi’s Field Notes
Million-dollar flats are no longer shocking headlines, they’re indicators of where value and scarcity meet.
However, when such premiums become commonplace, it’s a cue for buyers to ask:
“Am I paying for fundamentals, or for fear of missing out?”
Understanding town-specific data helps us see beyond hype and that’s where real planning begins.

What’s Next? More Balance Ahead?

Analysts forecast that HDB resale prices may consolidate further in Q4, bringing full-year growth to 3–4%.
Resale volumes are expected to settle between 26,000 and 28,000 units for 2025.
Meanwhile, around 13,500 flats are set to reach their Minimum Occupation Period (MOP) in 2026, refreshing the supply pool.

Rental demand remains stable, with 59,001 flats rented out by end-Q3. But leasing may soften slightly amid ongoing economic uncertainties.

👉 Rozi’s Field Notes
A cooling resale market doesn’t mean it’s cold. It means clarity is returning.
For homeowners nearing retirement, this is the time to check your Property Health.
For upgraders, refine your financial strategy before the next wave of launches.
Investors remember: when the headlines talk about “slowing growth,” the quiet opportunities often appear.